Live with Ryan Dawson Hormuz game of Chicken

Live with Ryan Dawson Hormuz game of Chicken

Источник: https://www.ryandawson.org/p/live-with-ryan-dawson-hormuz-game

I gotta explain cause there was a bunch of fake news first it came out saying that Iranian state TV said that they fired on a US ship with two missiles and hit it RT even said they hit a destroyer and then CENTCOM came out saying that's all fake news well it was it was their own fake news Iran never claimed that they hit a US ship Morons on Twitter said that Iran said that they hit a U.S. ship. They didn't. What the IRGCC, meaning the Cyber Corps of the Revolutionary Guard, said on Telegram, as well as Farce News and every other... official and semi-official news source out of around itself said that they fired two warning ships at U.S. boats that tried to enter the Strait of Hormuz what had happened was Trump has this Operation Freedom or whatever he's calling it where they wanted to send in warships like that's not a Trojan horse you know just to escort commercial ships out of the strait well that ain't up to you the strait is closed because you preemptively attacked Iran again during negotiations starting a war for 40 days which then caused them to close the strait they're closing it as leverage to make you leave if you get out and you go through that 10 point plan the strait is open again although it's going to have a toll booth now because you guys caused millions and millions of dollars in damage to Iran who did not do anything to you and you you lie about uranium you say you're going to collect the dust anyway what they had said was they fired warning shots now this was after they warned them on the radio but these American boats had turned off their transponder or turned off the communications and then clicked them on again and immediately got a verbal warning in English as well telling them turn around Then they fired warning shots.

They didn't just fire on the boats and those boats did turn around. They were not damaged. They were not hit. Twitter just loves clickbait and they go and then news sources look and they find Twitter and everyone that's copying that and then they end up reporting the wrong thing. This is why you have to go straight to the source whenever possible. Ironically, the Times of Israel got it correct because they were quoting Farsi News, who was quoting the Iranian government. They were warning shots. Still, the Americans are playing a very, very dangerous game of chicken, taking destroyers, taking warships and trying to play footsie with the Strait of Hormuz, which they had done. Now, completely separate to that, a Korean boat had an accident. and it was reported in the Korean Herald and other in Korean news around 10 o'clock Korea time that on the port side of one of their anchored ships near Fujairah so like the east side of the UAE or like they call East Israel which had been targeted and I'll explain that in a second they had an anchored ship 24 people not all of them were even on board that something either a fire on board or a mine that drifted hit them they were not targeted nobody fired a missile at them nobody fired a drone at them it was nothing like that but Korean ship hit got turned into Iran targets Korean boat and even on truth social Trump tried to drag South Korea into the war being like look they're shooting at one of your boats which makes you think There was a mountain that just drifted along on its own on accident and hit an anchored ship.

There were no casualties, by the way. This smells of false flag. I think the U.S. had UAE proxies go out and hit a Korean boat because they just hit one that was anchored. The fact that it was anchored and not moving around means it didn't just hit a mine. Those mines aren't just wandering around. If they were, then nobody could get through. Iran has been escorting ships in and out, allowing them in and out, and nobody's hit a water mine. And so you're going to tell me a ship that was anchored hit a mine? Well, no one fired at it, no reason to. But damn, when the president comes out and says maybe South Korea should join the war, South Korea has a huge navy, but more importantly... South Korea has what they need the most, interceptors. Now, I know you heard the story, well, didn't they yank them out? Like, no, no, no. America yanked out American stuff from South Korea. They took some Patriot batteries and THAAD radar and moved them out of South Korea and put them in Israel to protect Israel, not the Gulf.

But South Korea, they don't care because they have so many of their own native air defense systems, far more than the fraction of what the US and the little US bases of South Korea had that they moved around. And unlike America, South and they do this because of North Korea obviously and they're not moving but South Korea's air defense system works and it's way cheaper and they have an abundance of it why because North Korea is staring at them every day building more and more offensive weapons so South Korea builds more and more defensive weapons America would love to have access to that stockpile but South Korea so far has told them this If you're looking You're not looking at the screen I'm holding up the middle finger because they're not going to do that. They don't have a problem with Iran. They don't want to protect Israel. They want to protect South Korea, Korea first, and they're protecting them from North Korea.

Makes perfect sense. That's not a bad ally or anything like that. It's like, hey, they built those for their own defense, for their own borders, not to expend their stockpile, which does take a long time to make. Supply chains are all the same problems as any rest of them. Just it has a way better success rate I mean the Pac-2 was only like 19% So you need to fire five of them at one missile Pac-3 a little better But they fudged the numbers we saw So that's been eaten through South Korea is not going to go to war with Iran Over a mine that drifted If that's the official story More than likely You had East Israelis You know Emirates go and attack a ship to try and drag Korea into the war because they have it's like they got electrolytes. It's what plants crave. They have interceptors. That's what you need is what you crave because U.S. is out. Israel's out and the Gulf never had their own.

They only use the Americans anyway. So that's what happened there. Nobody shot at a Korean boat. That would be so stupid. That would be the dumbest move. would be, well, I mean, it'd be the second dumbest move. The dumbest move would be to attack a Chinese ship. Why would Iran attack a Chinese boat or not? The administration is so dumb, they may not know the difference between a Chinese and a Korean ship, but hitting Korea would be bad, hitting Japan would be bad, they have a massive navy, and they are legally not allowed to do anything unless provoked. and they'd love to be provoked so that is why those three are allowed to just take their oil and leave and like why not they don't have a role in this China Korea and Japan they just want their oil and gas Ryan Dawson But no, it's the Japanese on the lead on it, twisting Egypt's arm because Egypt's paid off by the Americans, same as Mubarak was before, to look the other way and let the Palestinians starve to death.

So that's sad. But anyway, and this is from Takaichi, but Shinzo Abe had done this before in Syria. They've dumped in about $100 million for reconstruction when Assad briefly had died. basically won the war other than Idlib and they got restarted after Russia got handcuffed to Ukraine and they came in and now Jelani's in charge Al Qaeda runs Syria Israel has annexed Mount Hermon all according to plan that's what the plan was that's why there was a war it's all about Israel you were looking at a major Ryan Dawson As the ships come back to resupply, there's nothing there. And they can't get out anyway. Their stores are full. And look, they could lose that too if they restart this war. Iran has already said they have pre-selected targets. The UAE is going to get it to worst. They're going to hit Qatar too because they've proven that they did assist in U.S. sorties that bombed targets inside Iran.

This is where I at So we got President Taco Playing chicken with his destroyers Trying to drag South Korea into a war It smells like a false flag At best, it's like they said, an accident Just, oh, really, a mine Just happened to drift in the current No storm or anything Just in, you know, nice weather It just drifted and hit a South Korean boat That was anchored, right? Okay, that's the story That's what they're sticking with Questions we're on Substack you can throw them into chat let's see Ryan Hotchkiss says South Korea has no reason to be little to the US the moment Israel got into trouble Trump removed the defenses yeah well Trump's not removing Korean defense systems Trump is removing American systems in Korea over to Israel which he can do those are on American bases and they're American patriot systems like Korea 99% of Koreans defense is from Korea those little things in the THAAD radar that's in South Korea is not there to face off against North Korea it's to penetrate radar into China everyone knows that North Korea is an excuse for America to park bases near China and have early warning and radar and stuff over there that's what that is and they had to move that out and what's hilarious is the THAAD system got blown up anyway and so they had to move it to Turkey because the ones in Israel the ones in Jordan and the one in Qatar all got destroyed so there's that yeah Mexico sent some money to Japan I mean they Japan has pretty good trade relations with everybody except North Korea I mean nobody just Russia has no one really has good relations with them and Cuba but they get along fine with Mexico Brazil Vietnam Taiwan and South Korea and America especially in Canada those are their major trading partners for them Oh yeah so now I was saying I'll get to this in a second the UAE was hit it was hit like eight hours ago starting in Fujairah which is on the eastern side which they use like it's the only thing they have on that side Dubai Abu Dhabi and all that's on the west on the eastern side By the way, Abu Dhabi is where all the energy is.

Dubai is where they launder the money. But Fujira is the port they use, imports especially, and exports. At least one of their oil refineries was tagged and on fire. And you can't hide it. The smoke plumes are in the air. There's photos of it. It's not AI. That happened. And the UAE is promising reprisal. Like, with what? What military? You don't have anything. What are you going to do? But this is, we call the UAE East Israel for a reason, like they want to drag the U.S. back into war of the run. What Israel doesn't want is Karam Shafur slamming into Tel Aviv. They're having a very hard time with Hezbollah as is, but they feel like they're winning the air war because they are. They're not doing that well on the ground, but you know then the net result is they are destroying an enormous amount of property in southern Lebanon just bombing civilians as that's how Israel does war they do it the Sherman and Sheridan way avoid the military and kill the civilians Yeah, and they think they can later annex that territory because the Lebanese will have nothing to come back to because their homes have been paved over, bulldozed, burned and destroyed.

And that's their goal is to annex that territory up to the yellow line. The blue line is the actual border. They just invented this yellow line. Greater Israel and they want to go all the way up to that and force the Lebanese out. But Hezbollah is all up in them hills and valleys and woods taking out tanks, taking out personnel. And they're not, look, homes can be rebuilt. Businesses can be, it sucks, it's going to take a lot of money. But when people get wiped out, that's it. It takes 18 years to make an adult person, a little more, plus nine months of whatever, you know. The Israelis are losing soldiers The Lebanese are losing stuff And they're losing a lot of stuff But you can remake a bridge You can remake a home You know, send in the Amish, whatever Their population is still intact They've been forced to flee But unlike Gaza, they can leave Which means they can return So in the long run Even if you destroyed every home Those people will come back.

Aid will come in. We'll get them back to where they were. You're not going to annex that territory. But they're crazy. They're like a rabid dog. That's what they want. But what they really don't want is they're having a hard enough time with this one-on-one with Hezbollah. They don't want their tag team partner Iran coming in and hitting them with missiles as well. But they want the U.S. to take out Iran because Israel can't. Well, I don't think America can either. And so there's two factions, two Zionist factions tugging at Trump. One that says, no, strangle them economically. Let us fight Hezbollah. That's better than the alternative where Iran jumps back in the game and we still have to fight them both. And the Gulf gets wiped out and it's like, you're just not, you can't take out Iran quick enough. But the faction two is talking about the knockout blow. is reminds me of George Tenet and the neocons talking about slam dunk on bullcrap intelligence on a rock knockout blow is the new catchphrase and this is purely the Adelson Dershowitz singer Ackman you know that crowd All civilians don't know anything about war games these things we did red hat games several of them and around always closes a straight it doesn't go well but they're like blockade the blockade strangle them and well you just need to gather munitions from all over the world the standoff munitions tomahawks and stuff which they did during the pause send in another carrier The Bush Send in another carrier The Ford Because if you remember Last time it was just the Lincoln Because the Ford had a mutiny They had set the laundry on fire They had toilet problems They weren't really involved So it was just the Lincoln and the Lincoln doesn't have a scratch on it I know there's all these AI video and they're like oh we're sinking carriers like no you didn't you didn't do anything like well it's sitting out of range like yeah why wouldn't they sit out of range they can hit you you can't hit them remember they used six carriers on a rock in that war to go after 19 mobile launchers you know how many they got anyone anyone

in chat you know how many they tagged out of 19 Zero.

So all they're really going to do is blow up bridges and infrastructure. They're not going to get anything with three carriers, two carriers, 11 carriers. Well, maybe 11, but it's not going to make that much of a difference. They can't get at the Ballistic Missiles Air Defense Systems Things That Matter Battlefield Wise Instead They Blow Up Bridges Railroads Warehouses You Know Power Plants Things Like That All Of Which Can Be Remade They Can Rebuild A Railroad You Know That A Power Station Is A Bitch But They Can Do Just Build It Again You Know They Are Going To Have Capital Because They're Going To Tax The State Of Hormuz And The More Damage You Do The Higher The Price Goes But if you restart this war and you go after Iranian energy, they will go after Gulf energy. And you could look at a future globally where you're just going to have to lower your standard of living. Just going to have to.

There is no replacement. There's no, oh, just go over there. Nope. Spirit Airlines went out of business people are laughing saying well black strippers are gonna have to find somewhere else to fight each other go back to Walmart or whatever but next could be Frontier and next like the airlines are in trouble they don't have enough aviation fuel this is not booga booga scare tactics this isn't some wild exaggeration this is real you're gonna have less food because they don't have enough fertilizer and you're gonna have less oil means gasoline going up aviation fuel is gonna have some shortages even in the United States or it's just you're gonna price yourself out of the market so it exists but it's unaffordable this is very real and why and that that's going to cause a cascade because all these people who are leveraged out on illiquid are going to they've already sold their crypto they sold their gold their equity loans and property values have dropped in places like Dubai stuff because it's unsafe tourism's at you know virtually the minimal they're not no one's going there this summer it's not safe and so the collateral they borrowed against has bottomed out so it's going to cause insolvency in some of these banks and they always like teeter on that anyway because they're greedy and so what are they going to do you know they need oil that has an intrinsic value the debt they've bought these treasury bonds and things you don't need those They gather interest or whatever It's a nice place to park your money But if you have your own debts Or you need to buy oil Which is super expensive Because you've physically decreased the supply Well they're going to sell them off Well that's not good for the dollar And right now they're doing the swap loans Where America is loaning money to the UAE To prevent them from calling in their IOUs They're gonna make more debt for the other debt.

Like, we will loan you money so that you don't cash in on the bonds you already hold. Which was done with the surplus of the oil revenue that no longer exists. I'm telling you, it's already bad. There's some lag time. But that's guaranteed it's happening. How much worse do you want to make it is the question. Do you want to keep digging a hole, digging your own grave, like all the way to the center? It looks like it. They'll do anything for Israel. They don't care how it affects the bond market, how it affects the dollar, petrodollar, like some people say. They get that wrong. It's not what currency you price your goods in. That doesn't matter. Think about this. They're like, oh, what if they switch the yuan and bricks? But you've heard the story. I'm like, oh, what if they stopped selling oil in dollars? Guys, they stopped selling oil. Not they stopped selling oil in dollars. They stopped selling oil, period, for 60 days.

So not only whether it was priced in dollars or not, it's not even being sold at all. Did the dollar collapse? No, it didn't. Ryan Dawson's Anti-neocon Report They switched to yen and bought oil directly from Iran in yen, not dollars, from 2007 to 2019. You didn't even notice. People do bilateral trades all the time. There is no rule that says you have to buy the oil in dollars. This is one exception with Saudi Arabia, whatever, but there's nothing that says you have to. They do it because it has the least amount of volatility. And when you're doing trades in the billions, you know, if a currency fluctuates a tenth of a percent, whatever, I mean, you could be losing millions of dollars. So they like to peg it to the one that's, you know, wobbling the least, which is the dollar. The only other ones you can really use are the euro, the yuan, and the yen. You wouldn't want to be using the yen now.

It's had a lot of volatility recently. It was stable for a while until it wasn't. It's not that. It's like after you have reserves, what do you spend them on? and what they're doing is they're buying U.S. debt. That's what matters is the bonds. Okay. It's not the y'all like you're looking at the the wrong side of the equation. They're not going to continue to buy U.S. debts when they have their own debt. They're going to sell. They're going to like imagine they have an IOU at whatever the yield is and they okay you guys now have to pay them for that. I don't see a button Alright guys I hear ya I see ya

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I gotta explain because there was a bunch of fake news first it came out saying that Iranian state tv said that they fired on a u.s ship with two missiles and hit it RT even said they hit a destroyer and then CENTCOM came out saying that's all fake news well it was it was their own fake news Iran never claimed that they hit a u.s ship morons on twitter said that Iran said that they hit a u.s ship they didn't what the IRGCC meaning the cyber core of the revolutionary guard said on telegram as well as farce news and every other official and semi-official uh news source out of Iran itself said that they fired two warning ships at u.s boats that tried to enter the state of Hormuz what had happened was

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So that's sad. But anyway, and then, you know, this is from Takeichi, but Shinzo Abe had done this before in Syria. They've dumped in about a hundred million dollars for reconstruction when Assad briefly had basically won the war other than Idlib. And they got restarted after Russia got handcuffed to Ukraine and they came in and now Jelani's in charge. Al Qaeda runs Syria. Israel has annexed Mount Hermon, all according to plan. That's what the plan was. That's why there was a war. It's all about Israel. You are looking at a major global economic catastrophe. It cannot be avoided. It's happening. We're going into recession. We're four or five weeks out. There is a delay because the oil that was already in the pipelines, the oil that was already on the boats that was released is reaching port. But there's been no more. They haven't been producing LNG. Kuwait's oil export was zilch. And so as the ships come back to resupply that there's nothing there. They and they can't get out anyway. The stores are full.

And look, they could lose that, too, if they restart this war. Iran has already said they have preselected targets. The UAE is going to get at the worst. They're going to hit Qatar, too, because they've proven that they did assist in U.S. sorties that bombed targets inside Iran. This is right. So we got President Taco playing chicken with his destroyers, trying to drag South Korea into a war. It smells like a false flag. At best, it's like they said, an accident. Just, oh, really? A mine just happened to drift in the current. No storm or anything. Just in, you know, nice weather. It just drifted and hit a South Korean boat that was anchored, right? Okay. That's the story. That's what they're sticking with. Questions. We're on Substack. You can throw them into chat. Let's see. Ryan Hotchkiss says, South Korea has no reason to be little to the U.S. The moment Israel got into trouble. Trump removed the defense system. Yeah, well, Trump's not removing Korean defense systems. Trump is removing American systems in Korea over to Israel, which he can do. Those are on American bases and they're American patriot systems. Like, Korea, 99% of Koreans' defense is from Korea.